Going Concern Checklist for Retail
Tailored going concern assessment for retail entities. Covers industry-specific indicators including same-store sales decline, lease burden, consumer behaviour shifts, and seasonal cash flow dependencies.
Going Concern
Checklist.
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Going concern assessment: Retail
Retail entities are particularly vulnerable to going concern risk because of their high fixed-cost structure (primarily store leases and staff), thin margins, and sensitivity to consumer spending patterns. A decline in foot traffic, a shift to online competitors, or a failed seasonal trading period can rapidly consume cash reserves. The interaction between lease obligations under IFRS 16 and declining revenue is a common trigger for going concern concerns.
Key risk factors: Retail
Key retail going concern indicators include: negative same-store sales trends over consecutive periods, inability to renew or exit onerous store leases, increasing reliance on supplier credit or overdraft facilities, seasonal cash flow dependency where a poor Christmas or peak trading period cannot be recovered, and loss of key concessions or franchise agreements. For fashion and seasonal retailers, the risk of inventory obsolescence adds a valuation dimension to the going concern assessment.
Same-store sales trends (excluding new openings) are the most reliable indicator of underlying performance — two or more consecutive quarters of decline warrant close scrutiny of cash flow projections.
Lease obligations under IFRS 16 create significant fixed commitments — assess whether the entity can meet lease payments from operations, and whether landlords have agreed or are likely to agree to rent concessions.
Supplier payment terms and trade credit availability — if suppliers are tightening terms or demanding payment on delivery, working capital will be squeezed precisely when the entity can least afford it.
Seasonal cash flow dependency — retailers that generate a disproportionate share of annual cash flow in a single period (e.g. Christmas, back-to-school) face binary risk if that period underperforms.
Online competition and channel shift — assess whether the entity's omnichannel strategy is viable or whether physical store economics are permanently impaired.
Inventory liquidation — if the entity is heavily discounting to clear stock, this signals both demand weakness and margin erosion that directly impacts cash flow forecasts.