Going Concern Checklist for Manufacturing
Tailored going concern assessment for manufacturing entities. Covers industry-specific indicators including production capacity, supply chain dependencies, and inventory obsolescence risk.
Going Concern
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Going concern assessment: Manufacturing
Manufacturing entities face going concern risks that are closely tied to production economics, supply chain stability, and demand cycles. A downturn in orders, a disruption in raw material supply, or a loss of a major customer can rapidly erode the financial position. The capital-intensive nature of manufacturing means that fixed costs remain high even when volumes decline, accelerating cash burn during downturns.
Key risk factors: Manufacturing
Key going concern indicators specific to manufacturing include: declining order backlog or loss of key customers, inability to pass on raw material cost increases, production facility obsolescence requiring major capital expenditure, excessive inventory build-up suggesting demand weakness, and dependency on a single supplier or customer representing more than 20–30% of activity. Covenant breaches on asset-based lending facilities are particularly relevant because manufacturing entities frequently use inventory and receivables as collateral.
Order backlog trends are a leading indicator — a declining backlog over two or more quarters signals potential revenue shortfall that may affect the entity's ability to cover fixed costs.
Raw material price exposure — if the entity cannot pass on cost increases to customers (common in long-term fixed-price contracts), margin compression can rapidly erode working capital.
Capital expenditure requirements — ageing production equipment may require replacement, but if the entity lacks the cash flow or borrowing capacity to fund it, operational capability deteriorates.
Customer concentration risk — loss of a single customer representing more than 15–20% of revenue can trigger a going concern assessment, particularly if contracts are short-term or subject to rebidding.
Inventory ageing analysis should be examined — significant build-up of finished goods or slow-moving raw materials may indicate demand problems and future write-down requirements.
Workforce availability and labour relations — manufacturing depends on skilled labour, and strikes, wage disputes, or inability to recruit can halt production and cash generation.