Going Concern Checklist for Real Estate
Tailored going concern assessment for real estate entities. Covers industry-specific indicators including vacancy rates, loan-to-value covenants, refinancing risk, and tenant creditworthiness.
Going Concern
Checklist.
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Going concern assessment: Real Estate
Real estate entities face going concern risks that are amplified by leverage. Property companies typically carry significant debt secured against their portfolio, with covenants tied to property valuations and rental income coverage ratios. A decline in property values, an increase in vacancy rates, or the insolvency of a major tenant can trigger covenant breaches that cascade into going concern doubts.
Key risk factors: Real Estate
Key real estate going concern indicators include: vacancy rates rising above the level required to service debt, approaching loan maturity dates without committed refinancing, LTV covenant breaches triggered by declining property valuations, insolvency or lease default by major tenants, rising interest rates increasing debt service costs beyond rental income coverage, and inability to fund committed development projects or contractual obligations.
LTV covenant compliance — recalculate LTV ratios using current valuations (not book values) to assess proximity to covenant thresholds. A 5–10% decline in values could trigger breaches.
Debt maturity schedule — assess whether loans maturing within 12 months have committed refinancing. In tight credit markets, refinancing is not guaranteed, especially for secondary assets.
Vacancy rate trajectory — are vacancies increasing? Calculate the void period before new tenants are secured and whether rental income covers debt service during voids.
Tenant creditworthiness — assess the financial health of the top 5–10 tenants by rental income. The insolvency of a single major tenant can collapse income coverage ratios.
Interest rate exposure — for variable-rate debt, model the impact of rate increases on debt service coverage. If interest rate hedges are expiring, the entity faces increased exposure.
Development commitments — entities with projects under construction have contractual obligations to complete them. Assess whether funding is in place and whether the completed project will generate sufficient returns.