Going Concern Checklist for Hospitality
Tailored going concern assessment for hotels, restaurants, and hospitality entities. Covers industry-specific indicators including occupancy rates, seasonal cash flow patterns, debt covenants, and franchise compliance.
Going Concern
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Going concern assessment: Hospitality
Hospitality entities — hotels, restaurants, event venues, and tourism operators — are highly sensitive to economic cycles, seasonal demand patterns, and external disruptions (pandemics, travel restrictions, geopolitical events). The combination of high fixed costs (property, staff), perishable inventory (unsold room nights cannot be recovered), and seasonal cash flow concentration creates a business model where going concern risk can emerge rapidly.
Key risk factors: Hospitality
Key hospitality going concern indicators include: occupancy rates or average daily rates (ADR) falling below breakeven levels, inability to meet debt service obligations on property financing, seasonal cash flow shortfalls where the off-season burn rate exceeds available reserves or credit lines, franchise agreement non-compliance (brand standards, renovation requirements), loss of key contracts (corporate accounts, tour operator agreements), and escalating labour costs without corresponding rate increases.
Occupancy rate and RevPAR trends — compare to both the entity's breakeven occupancy and to competitive set (comp set) performance. Underperformance versus the market suggests entity-specific rather than market-wide problems.
Debt covenants on property financing — hospitality debt typically includes DSCR (debt service coverage ratio) and LTV covenants. Covenant breaches can trigger acceleration clauses that crystallise going concern risk.
Seasonal cash flow modelling — assess whether the entity's cash reserves or credit facilities are sufficient to cover the off-season operating deficit until peak season cash generation resumes.
Capital expenditure obligations — franchise agreements and brand standards may require periodic renovation (property improvement plans). Inability to fund these creates a risk of franchise termination.
Forward booking data — unlike other industries, hospitality has leading indicators in forward reservations. A significant decline in advance bookings signals future revenue shortfalls.
Labour market and staffing — hospitality relies on seasonal and part-time workers. Wage inflation, minimum wage increases, or inability to staff adequately directly impacts both cost structures and service quality.